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Insurance Shock Waves: How Florida & California Premium Spikes Impact DSCR Underwriting
George Tsividakis
June 06, 2025
When wind, fire, and re-insurer exits collide, property-insurance costs can jump 30–60 percent overnight—slashing DSCRs and reshaping loan terms. Here’s what investors and brokers must know in 2025.
Driver | Florida | California |
|---|---|---|
Catastrophe Losses | Seven named storms hit in 2023–24; record $60 B insured losses. | 2024 wildfire season torched $15 B in claims; drought persists. |
Carrier Retreat | 12 admitted insurers have left or paused new business since 2022. | Five of the top-20 carriers froze new HO & DP policies in fire zones. |
Re-Insurance Costs | Up 40 % at Jan 2025 treaty renewals. | Up 28 % (wildfire re-cat layer). |
Regulatory Lag | 10-month rate-filing approval window; carriers pump prices once they get the green light. | Prop 103 caps annual hikes → carriers exit instead. |
Result: Investors renewing policies in Q2 2025 are seeing 30–60 % spikes—sometimes triple on coastal or high-fire-risk ZIP codes.
2 | How Insurance Enters the DSCR Equation
DSCR = Net Operating Income ÷ Annual Debt Service
Net Operating Income (NOI) = Gross Rents − Operating Expenses (taxes, insurance, utilities, management, etc.)
Rule of Thumb: Every $1,000/year premium increase knocks DSCR by ~0.015 on a $250 K, 30-year loan at 7.5 %.
Quick Example (4-Plex, Tampa, FL)
Item | 2024 Renewal | 2025 Renewal |
|---|---|---|
Annual Premium | $4,800 | $7,600 (+58 %) |
NOI | $36,200 | $33,400 |
Annual Debt Service | $28,800 | same |
DSCR | 1.26 | 1.16 ⚠️ |
If your lender’s floor is 1.20, that one line-item spike flips an “approve” to “decline.”
3 | What Underwriters Are Doing Right Now
Change | Impact on Borrower |
|---|---|
Insurance “Haircuts”—lenders assume +20 % premium in stress test | Need higher actual DSCR (≈ 1.25) at submission. |
Force-Placing Quotes in underwriting file | You may have to escrow with the lender’s carrier if your quote is low. |
Lower Max LTV in FL wind & CA wildfire counties | 80 % ➝ 75 % (SFH) and 75 % ➝ 70 % (2–8 units). |
Reserve Requirements Up | Six months PITIA ➝ nine in high-risk ZIPs. |
LoanFunders.com note: We adopted the stress-test approach April 2025—better to approve with cushion than re-trade late.
4 | Case Study—Wildfire Shock on a DSCR Refi (Sacramento Foothills)
2024 premium: $1,900 ➝ 2025 quote: $4,900
Loan request $420 K on duplex, 75 % LTV
Metric | Original | Shocked |
|---|---|---|
Rent | $3,500 | same |
Taxes + Expenses | $700 | $700 |
Insurance | $158 | $408 |
NOI | $2,642 | $2,392 |
Debt Service | $2,256 | same |
DSCR | 1.17 | 1.06 ⛔ |
Borrower added $40 K cash to drop LTV to 68 %, lowering monthly debt and pushing DSCR back to 1.20. Close saved, but liquidity cost stung.
5 | Five Mitigation Moves for Investors (& Brokers)
Move | How It Helps | Pro Tip |
|---|---|---|
Raise Deductibles | 1 % ➝ 3 % wind/hail often cuts premium 15-20 %. | Show reserve proof covering higher deductible. |
Bundle Portfolio Policies | Multi-property blanket can average risk across ZIP codes. | Provide consolidated SREO to insurer and lender. |
Fortify & Certify | Roof straps, fire-resistant siding, defensible space = carrier credits. | Upload invoices & before/after photos in loan file. |
Rent Bump Timing | Lock annual increases before appraisal; higher NOI offsets premium. | Document signed renewals to satisfy underwriter. |
Budget Cushion in Pro-Forma | Underwrite deals at +30 % insurance to avoid re-trade. | Use our free “Expense Shock Calculator” (link in blog sidebar). |
6 | LoanFunders.com Guidelines (Q3 2025)
Product | FL / CA High-Risk Counties | Elsewhere |
|---|---|---|
DSCR 30-Yr Fixed | Min DSCR 1.25 | DSCR 1.15 |
5-8 Unit DSCR | DSCR 1.30 | DSCR 1.20 |
Bridge | LTC max 75 % (was 80 %) | LTC 80 % |
Reserves | 9 mo PITIA | 6 mo |
Brokers can white-label any of these programs; email for pricing matrix.
7 | Key Takeaways
Premium spikes directly erode DSCR—a $3 K rise can sink approvals.
Underwriters now stress-test insurance at +20 – 30 % in FL/CA hot-spots.
Investors should lock realistic quotes early, build NOI cushion, or plan extra equity.
Leverage insurers’ mitigation credits and higher deductibles to claw back DSCR.
Partner with lenders (👋) who react quickly, not retroactively, to insurance shocks.
Need a DSCR Lender Ready for the Insurance Era?
Upload your quote and rent roll—LoanFunders.com will re-model DSCR with today’s premiums and issue a term sheet in 24 hours.
Underwrite reality, not last year’s rates.