2025 Real Estate Wrap-Up: What Actually Mattered (and What to Do Next)

Big picture: the Fed cut rates three times this fall. Good news, right? Sort of. Investor loan pricing (like DSCR) doesn’t just follow the Fed. It follows the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-bond spreads. Those moved around all year—sometimes before the Fed meetings—so rate sheets didn’t always drop on cue.

1) Fed cut ≠ instant DSCR sale

• The Fed controls an overnight rate.

• Your DSCR quote leans on long-term market rates (10-year Treasury) plus spreads.

• Translation: you can see headlines go down and rate sheets…not budge. Or even tick up.

Move to make: Price your deal now, stress it +0.25% to +0.50%, and lock when it still works.

2) Mortgage vibe: better than 2024, still jumpy

Rates eased off last year’s peaks, but they bounced with every inflation or jobs print. Some weeks felt great; others didn’t. That’s normal in a choppy market.

Move to make: If you shelved a DSCR refi earlier, re-run it. Today’s sheet might clear your DSCR target.

3) Multifamily: location mattered more than ever

Some neighborhoods cooled with new supply; others stayed tight and kept rents moving.

Move to make: Underwrite block by block. In soft spots, test flat/negative rent. In tight spots, be realistic—but don’t sandbag the deal to death.

4) Commercial credit: not all “distress” is equal

Office pain stuck around (especially older buildings). Other asset types were mixed but doable with the right plan and reserves.

Move to make: If your exit needs lease-up, pad time and cash. Lenders want a believable path to DSCR.

5) Insurance punched above its weight

Premiums stayed spicy and blew up more than a few closings.

Move to make: Get real quotes early. Don’t guess at T&I and pray.

Quick playbook for 2026

• Watch the 10-year, not just the Fed. That’s the steering wheel.

• Size reserves to reality. Interest, T&I, TI/LC—tie them to milestones.

• Buydown only if it pays back before your hold period ends.

• Have two exits. Price both “sell” and “DSCR refi” before you swing a hammer.

Where we help (fast and practical)

• DSCR (1–8 units) — asset-based, no tax returns, rates from 5.88%, Min DSCR 1.00, fixed/ARM, I/O up to 10 yrs.

• Fix & Flip — 7.99%, no prepay, up to 90% LTC (experienced); Light Rehab for new investors (680+).

• GUC — 7.99%, experience-tiered LTC up to 90%, milestone draws and schedule-based reserves.

How we work: same-day soft pre-quals, clean scenarios (with/without buydown, rolled-in costs where eligible), and straight talk from first call to close.

Happy New Year 🎉

Wishing you a happy, healthy, profitable 2026. We’ll be here to run numbers, map draws, and keep deals alive when banks won’t.

Want to review a live deal or book a quick team session?
Reply or text me @ 718-635-2377!

Not a commitment to lend. Programs, rates, and guidelines subject to change and approval.